The first Demographic Barometer was launched
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10 July 2015

On the occasion of the World Population Day the Demographic Research Centre in partnership with the Ministry of Labour, Social Protection and Family and UNFPA, United Nations Population Fund, launched the first Demographic Barometer.

Olga Penina, researcher at the Demographic Centre, declared that the quality of the official statistical data regarding the number and the structure of the population of the Republic of Moldova was analysed in the framework of the Barometer. The alternative estimations of the number and structure of the population made by the Demographic Research Centre and the German Institute on Demographic Studies Max-Planck were presented.

According to the National Bureau of Statistic of Moldova, the population of the Republic of Moldova is 3.55 million while the alternative estimations show that the real number of the population of the Republic of Moldova is around 2.9 million. As such, the number of the population was overestimated by 660 thousands (16%).

As a result of the conducted analysis it was demonstrated that the overestimation of the official number of the population was caused by the incoherence of the counting of the migration flow compared to the international standards.

Valentina Istrati, Head of Department on Demographic Statistics and Census of the National Bureau of Statistics mentioned that the data of the census were very important for the identification of the number of real population. She explained the existing gap identified by the Barometer by the fact that the gender and age structure of the population is estimated annually only for the stable population, which includes all the registered individuals, inclusively the migrants which were away for more than a year.

Taking into consideration the major discrepancy between the number of stable population and that de facto present on the territory of the Republic of Moldova the researchers emphasise that the altering of the demographic and socioeconomic indicators was taking place. These indicators are calculated in relation to the number of population, some of them being underestimated such as the fertility rate, morbidity and the mortality rate, while the life expectancy indicator is overestimated.

Aliona Cretu, Head of Division on Demographic and Migration Policies of the Ministry of Social Protection and Family underlined the importance of the official statistics which has to have credible data about the number of population. This thing is essential for not alter the Republic of Moldova demographic forecasts, including the public policies.

UNFPA Program Analyst on Population Development and Gender Eduard Mihalas specified the role of the quality of the official and alternative desegregated data for offering to authorities the policies recommendations which are evidence-based and human-centred. “Only in this way the Government along with the civil society and the academic community will be able to come with public policies that will invest into the quality of life, while the UNFPA will continue to offer the necessary assistance and expertise”, he underlined.

A range of recommendations aiming the improvement of the statistical data regarding the number and the structure of the population were proposed based on the findings of the Demographic Barometer which include the recalculation of the de facto number of population and the acceleration of the processing of the Census 2014 data. The Barometer also contains the recommendation of calculation of the demographic and socioeconomic indicators related to the population with regular residence according to the EU standards and the changing of the national legislation regarding the registering of the demographic events in relation with the notion of the regular residence.

At the same time the Head of the Demographic Research Center Olga Gagauz underlined that the main recommendation is to invest in the quality of the population of the Republic of Moldova. “The level of the socioeconomic development of the country is determined not by the number of the population but by its quality”, the expert explained.

“What is the real number of the population of the Republic of Moldova” is the first Barometer in the range of similar analyses which will be launched by the Demographic Research Centre by the end of 2015. The barometers aims to evaluate demographic situation in the areas which are related to the population dynamics, youth and elderly people and elaboration of policies recommendation which will invest into the human development.

More information:

The World Population Day, which was instituted in 1989 by the UN on 11 July, has the aim raising awareness regarding the population problems at the international level in a world where there are 7 billion of people and are expected to be 8 billion by 2030.

Every year there is a special topic for the World Population Day determined by the most important problem of the population on the international agenda. On the occasion of the World Population Day in 2015 the UN increase the degree of awareness regarding the vulnerable populations in emergencies.

  • supporting document Barometrul Demografic / Demographic Barometer

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